Daily Bulletin

Good morning. U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods and new restrictions on the sale of Boeing aircraft parts triggered sharp sell-offs in global equity markets at the end of the week. These measures were introduced in response to China’s export restrictions on rare earth elements; however, subsequent statements from the U.S. administration over the weekend signaled a somewhat softer tone. As of this morning, U.S. and European futures are posting notable “rebound gains,” while Asian markets remain in negative territory. In Japan, the collapse of the 26-year coalition following the ruling party’s leadership change has added another layer of political uncertainty to the region. At Borsa Istanbul, Friday’s session closed slightly negative; however, we observed net inflows from active institutional investors. The BIST 100 Index spent most of last week moving sideways within the 10,700–10,900 range, showing consistent efforts to hold above the 10,600–10,700 support zone. We expect a similar pattern to continue today, with the 10,900–11,000 range acting as the near-term resistance area. Based on target prices derived from company valuations, our 12-month forward projection for the BIST 100 Index remains around the 15,000 level. On today’s domestic agenda, August current account data will be released, for which we estimate a surplus of approximately USD 5.7 billion. Later in the week, key local indicators to watch include the budget balance, housing prices and sales, CBRT reserves, foreign investor flows, and the Market Participants Survey. In the U.S., the ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of several key macroeconomic indicators, including the inflation report initially scheduled for this week. Lastly, Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums are starting the day at around 265 basis points.