Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite remains balanced. U.S. futures are slightly negative, while European futures trade mildly positive; the open Asian markets are generally on the buy side. Key themes attracting market attention include the timing of a full resumption of public services in the U.S., the potential scale of temporary layoffs, and whether these developments might influence expectations for Fed rate cuts. In Europe, the focus remains on growth indicators and how the region will manage potential energy shortages ahead of winter. In Asia, markets will be watching the initial policy actions of Japan’s Takaichi administration and the trajectory of growth-oriented stimulus measures in China. Domestically, following the unexpected rise in inflation data, markets are closely monitoring the upcoming MPC decision, political developments, and expectations surrounding the upcoming Q3 2025 earnings season. In Borsa Istanbul, momentum loss persists, with the BIST 100 index retreating by about 7% from 11,500 to around 10,700 over the past two weeks. In dollar terms, the decline amounts to approximately 8% during the same period. From a technical standpoint, support levels are seen at 10,600 and 10,300, while potential rebound resistances are noted at 10,930, 11,120, and the 11,250–11,300 region. Although the 12-month target for the BIST 100 index, based on the aggregate target prices of constituent companies, points to around 15,000, the market currently struggles to find a catalyst to move toward that target. Therefore, it will be important first to observe whether technical supports hold and whether resistances are tested with rising volume and capital inflows. Today’s macroeconomic calendar is relatively light; investors will be following the messages from the CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan’s presentation at the Turkish Grand National Assembly. Finally, Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 259 basis points.