Daily Bulletin

Good morning. With one week remaining until the September 17th Fed meeting, yesterday’s U.S. PPI data came in significantly below expectations, once again reinforcing rate-cut pricing. In fact, recently there has been an increase in market participants expecting a 50-basis-point cut from the Fed instead of 25 basis points. Oracle’s announcement yesterday of rising demand for its artificial-intelligence applications also supported U.S. technology stocks. Although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices tested new highs, U.S. and European futures are flat this morning, while Asia is generally trading on the bid side. Yesterday, Borsa Istanbul rallied nearly 1% to close near the 10,600 resistance level, with notable capital inflows and partial foreign purchases. In the short term, key resistance levels for the BIST 100 Index stand at 10,600, 10,720, and 10,960, while supports are at 10,400 and 10,340. On today’s agenda, the Central Bank of Turkey’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision takes center stage. We expect a 200-basis-point rate cut, lowering the policy rate from 43% to 41%, though a 250- or even 300-basis-point cut also remains possible. The forward-looking messages in the MPC Statement will be closely monitored; language signaling further rate cuts would be positive for Borsa Istanbul. However, without seeing the outcome of the case publicly known as the “CHP Congress Case,” expected on Monday (September 15), a sustained relief rally in BIST may not materialize. Externally, the European Central Bank’s rate decision and the U.S. CPI data will be in focus today. After yesterday’s weaker-than-expected PPI print, a similar trend could emerge in today’s CPI release. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums opened the day at 267 basis points.