Daily Bulletin

Good morning. We are starting the week with two major developments in Turkey. The first is the temporary administration decision taken last week regarding CHP’s Istanbul provincial organization and the ongoing political tensions. The second is the Medium-Term Program (MTP) covering the years 2026–2028, which was published in the Official Gazette, along with the details it contains. We believe that political tensions could continue to weigh on TRY assets until the ruling on CHP’s congress lawsuit, which is expected next Monday (September 15). As for the MTP, the framework appears broadly consistent, though its growth and inflation forecasts seem somewhat more optimistic compared to market expectations. Details regarding the MTP can be found on page 3 of our Daily Bulletin. Looking at global markets, Friday’s weak nonfarm payrolls report in the U.S.—which came in at 22,000 versus expectations of 75,000—has reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut at the September 17 meeting, thereby continuing to support global risk appetite. Some institutions have even shifted from expecting a 25 bps cut to a 50 bps cut. This morning, U.S. and European futures, along with Asian equity markets, are generally trading higher. In Borsa Istanbul, however, we expect domestic political tensions to remain a source of pressure. For the BIST 100 index, 10,600 stands out as the nearest critical support level. A break below this threshold could open downside potential toward 10,300. On the upside, resistance is seen at 10,960 and in the 11,000–11,100 range. Today’s macro data calendar is quiet, while Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads opened the day at 267 basis points.