Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Following the release of weak employment data in the U.S., expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are strengthening. Today, attention will be on the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data to be released at 15:30. Weaker-than-expected figures would likely reinforce market pricing of an almost certain rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, which in turn would support global market sentiment. Looking at this morning’s performance, U.S. and European futures as well as Asian equity markets are generally trading higher. Yesterday, Borsa Istanbul closed above 10,800 with a 0.85% rebound. While domestic institutional inflows were evident, foreign investor appetite remained weak. Nevertheless, we expect the recovery to continue today, with the 11,000–11,100 range as the first resistance zone. Support levels are seen at 10,610 and 10,500. On today’s agenda, aside from the U.S. data, growth and labor market figures from Europe will also be monitored, though their impact on markets is likely to remain limited. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads opened the day at 268 bps. After remaining above 270 bps for three consecutive days, the recent decline below this threshold is viewed positively, as it should provide a supportive backdrop for banking sector flows.