Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Despite rising expectations for a Fed rate cut on September 17—fueling record pricing in precious metals such as gold and silver—the impact on global equities remains limited. This morning, U.S. and European futures are slightly negative, while Asia is showing a mixed picture. At Borsa Istanbul, although the 11,500 / 11,600 band was tested for three consecutive days last week, weakening momentum dragged the index back to around 11,300. Over the past two sessions, we observed attempts to hold above the 10-day exponential moving average; however, there remains downside potential toward the 11,000 / 11,100 support zone. On the upside, 11,400 may serve as an interim resistance level. The Turkish economy grew by 1.6% QoQ and 4.8% YoY in the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 25), compared to expectations of 3.8% annual growth. Meanwhile, first-quarter growth was revised upward to 2.3% YoY from 2.0%. The stronger-than-expected growth reflects both the low base effect and revisions introduced under the Turkish National Accounting System. Following these data, expectations for a rate cut at the September 11 MPC meeting may be partly tempered, potentially reducing the recent support to Borsa Istanbul coming through this channel. Based on company valuations, the 12-month BIST 100 index target continues to point above 14,900. On today’s agenda, Eurozone CPI data, as well as U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM figures, will be in focus. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spread opens the day at 264 basis points.