Daily Bulletin

As we begin September, we observe a balanced outlook in global risk appetite. In the U.S., the Federal Court of Appeals deemed certain customs tariffs unlawful but postponed its final decision to October, creating an environment of uncertainty. U.S. equity markets will remain closed today; however, U.S. futures are slightly negative, European futures are slightly positive, and Asian markets are mixed. Anticipation ahead of the September 17 Fed meeting continues, while a busy data agenda in the U.S. and globally throughout the week is expected to sustain volatility. At Borsa Istanbul, as we highlighted on Friday, the unwinding of arbitrage positions weighed on sentiment, leading the market to close the day down by 0.7%. In foreign flows, however, net buying activity was more pronounced. While we observe some weakening in short-term momentum, upward revisions in long-term valuations suggest that the main trend remains intact. For the BIST 100 index, short-term support levels are at 11,150–11,200 and 11,000, while resistance levels stand at 11,400–11,500 and 11,620. On today’s agenda, the domestic highlight will be the Q2 2025 GDP growth data. Following annual growth of 2% in Q1, we expect the figure to rise to 3.8% in Q2, compared with the market consensus of 4.1%. On a quarterly basis, we anticipate weaker performance than the 1% growth recorded in the previous quarter. We maintain our year-end 2025 growth forecast at 3.1%. Abroad, Eurozone PMI and unemployment figures will be closely watched today. Later in the week, inflation data in Turkey and Europe, as well as U.S. employment reports, will take center stage. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 264 basis points.