Daily Bulletin

Good morning, wishing you a productive week. Following Fed Chair Powell’s emphasis on “employment risks” and his signaling of potential rate cuts, market pricing for a Fed rate cut on September 17 has strengthened. U.S. equities ended last Friday with sharp gains of 1.5–1.8%, marking fresh highs, while the new week is starting on a more cautious note. U.S. and European futures are slightly negative, whereas Asian markets are pricing in Friday’s rally this morning. It should be noted that until the September 17 Fed meeting, upcoming data releases in the U.S. on inflation, employment, and growth will directly shape expectations around the Fed and could generate significant volatility. In Borsa Istanbul, the uptrend above the 11,250 resistance level remains intact, supported by trading volume and capital inflows. The 11,500–12,000 range continues to be the near-term target zone. With the current momentum and ongoing expectations of a rate cut from the CBRT, this area could be surpassed without a meaningful correction. Based on company valuations, our 12-month target for the BIST 100 index has approached 14,700. We believe that, following the rapid move from around 13,500, the index may stabilize in the 14,800–15,000 range in the near term. Today’s domestic agenda includes the Presidential Cabinet meeting, capacity utilization, and confidence indices, while abroad, U.S. housing market data and regional Fed activity indices will be monitored. Later in the week, a busy U.S. data calendar awaits, with particular focus on GDP and core personal consumption expenditures. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums opened the day at 265 basis points.