Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Following the release of growth-oriented data in the U.S. yesterday, which exceeded expectations, we observe that pricing for a rate cut by the Fed at its September 17 meeting has diminished further. In addition, the perception that the Russia–Ukraine war will be prolonged, along with ongoing speculation that technology companies may be trading at expensive levels, has triggered selling pressure in U.S. equities. Looking at this morning, global risk appetite remains balanced, with markets awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Powell later this evening. Turning to Borsa Istanbul, we see a very strong performance. Yesterday, the BIST 100 index climbed above 11,300, renewing its historical peak in TL terms. However, it should be noted that in terms of foreign exchange, gold, or inflation-adjusted levels, the index remains significantly below prior highs. We expect the positive pricing trend in Borsa Istanbul to continue, supported by foreign inflows, rising trading volumes, and increased liquidity. The technical outlook remains constructive, and in the short term, we maintain our expectation that the BIST 100 index will test the 11,500–12,000 range. This level could also be surpassed without a correction, driven by ongoing momentum and sustained expectations of a rate cut from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Our 12-month target for the BIST 100 index, based on company valuations, has now approached 14,700. Today’s macroeconomic data flow is calm, while markets will closely monitor Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium at 5:00 p.m. Turkish time. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 272 basis points.