Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global markets are closely monitoring the ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the Russia–Ukraine war, with the participation of the U.S. and European countries. Although no concrete outcomes have been reached yet, messages suggesting a potential Putin–Zelensky meeting within the next two weeks are creating a moderate sense of optimism. Global equities opened the day on a mixed note: U.S. futures are slightly negative, European futures are mildly positive, while in Asia, major indices are trading with a mixed bias—some in positive territory, others in negative. Overall, global risk appetite appears balanced. In Borsa Istanbul, it is noteworthy that the index moved above 10,900 yesterday on rising volume. However, given the concentration of activity in only a few stocks and the limited capital inflows, we cannot yet speak of a broad-based optimism. Expectations of a rate cut from the CBRT and a second-quarter earnings season that has been relatively more favorable compared to previous quarters have carried the BIST 100 index from the 9,000 level toward the 11,000 range. Still, we believe further catalysts are needed for the index to decisively surpass these levels. Accordingly, the near-term resistance levels at 11,000–11,100 and 11,250 will likely depend on supportive new developments. On the longer horizon, however, valuation upgrades are continuing. Based on our bottom-up analysis of companies’ target prices, our 12-month forward target for the BIST 100 index has risen above 14,500. That said, Borsa Istanbul may continue to struggle to gain momentum in the short term. In this process, the key support levels to watch are 10,800 and 10,500. Today’s calendar is relatively quiet. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 270 basis points.