Daily Bulletin

Good morning. We start the final trading day of the week with a weak risk appetite. Following the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and its continued hawkish tone, the June PCE data—considered the Fed’s key inflation gauge—exceeded expectations, with headline inflation at 2.6% and core at 2.8%. U.S. and European equity markets closed lower yesterday, and futures are also trading in negative territory this morning. In Asia, risk sentiment remains subdued. China’s July manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, fueling concerns about growth, while Japan’s final PMI remained in contraction territory at 48.9, signaling ongoing weakness. On the trade front, former President Trump extended existing tariffs on Mexico by 90 days, while the deadline for other countries expires today, raising geopolitical tensions. Domestically, the BIST 100 Index ended Thursday up 1.17% at 10,743 points, marking its highest close since March 18. With this move, the index surpassed the 10,700 resistance level, fully recovering earlier losses from the start of the week. Today, while global trade concerns are expected to weigh on risk appetite, we anticipate a flat to cautious opening for Borsa Istanbul. The 10,800 level remains a key resistance to monitor, as the index continues to test support above 10,700. Given the brief dip below 10,500 earlier this week, the 10,450–10,300 range stands out as a key support zone in the event of renewed pressure. From a long-term valuation perspective, the end-2025 target for the index remains at 14,000 points. On the data front, the domestic calendar is quiet today. However, at 3:30 p.m. Turkish time, investors will focus on U.S. July non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 280 basis points.