Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global markets are starting the day with a cautious tone, accompanied by a slight recovery in risk appetite following the Fed’s decision yesterday. As expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Chair Powell reiterated that monetary policy is “in a good place” and did not provide a clear signal for a near-term rate cut. Following these statements, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 68% to 35%, while the dollar index approached the 105 level, in line with our forecasts. After a mixed close on Wall Street, U.S. futures are trading in positive territory this morning. European futures are also slightly higher. In Asia, the picture is mixed. Weak PMI data from China is weighing on Shanghai and Hong Kong, while strong retail and industrial data in Japan is supporting the Nikkei. The Bank of Japan, in line with expectations, kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% this morning. Turning to domestic markets, the BIST 100 index rose by 1.26% yesterday to close at 10,619 points, attempting to recover the losses accumulated since the beginning of the week. In the short term, the 10,700 level stands out as the initial resistance, while 10,800 points represents a key resistance zone. On the downside, the 10,450 – 10,300 range is monitored as the first support area in the event of renewed selling pressure. Today, the local economic calendar is quiet. Internationally, preliminary CPI data for July from Germany will be released at 15:00 local time, followed by June PCE inflation and weekly jobless claims from the U.S. at 15:30. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium starts the new day at 276 basis points.