Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite is cautious as of this morning. The week began with former President Trump’s announcement of a potential 15% tariff on the European Union. Although this initially triggered short-lived volatility in the markets, the overall price action remained limited. U.S. equity futures are trading slightly higher this morning. In Europe, following increased selling pressure toward yesterday's close, futures are displaying a mixed outlook. Similarly, profit-taking continues across Asian markets. Investors are maintaining a cautious stance ahead of tomorrow’s Fed and Thursday’s BoJ interest rate decisions. Turning to domestic markets, the initial reaction to Moody’s credit rating upgrade in Borsa Istanbul was limited to a move toward 10,682 points, while the index ended the day at 10,540 amid growing pressure in the afternoon session. The ongoing net capital outflows since last week have weakened technical momentum. In the short term, a lack of a clear catalyst is evident for the index to break above the 10,700 resistance level. Notably, earnings deterioration across companies during the ongoing Q2 2025 earnings season is weighing on valuations. Within this backdrop, the 10,500–10,300 range remains the initial support zone. Despite short- to medium-term volatility, the long-term target range for the index is maintained at 13,900–14,000 based on valuation metrics. Today’s economic calendar is relatively light. While no rate changes are expected, the guidance from tomorrow’s Fed meeting and Thursday’s BoJ decision will be key in shaping global risk sentiment. On Friday, the U.S. PCE inflation data and Eurozone CPI figures will be of critical importance in assessing global inflation dynamics. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 274 basis points.