Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global markets continue to draw support from the agreement between the United States and Japan. The U.S. also appears to be moving toward a separate negotiation process with the European Union, which is contributing to positive sentiment in European equities. This morning, U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian stock markets, are generally trading higher. On Borsa Istanbul, the index has remained in a balanced wait-and-see mode around the 10,600 level for the past three days ahead of the expected interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Despite supportive news flow during this period, the market's reaction has been relatively muted. Should the MPC deliver a rate cut in the range of 250–350 basis points and signal the continuation of the easing cycle in the statement, we would expect the positive trend on Borsa Istanbul to persist. However, a smaller-than-expected rate cut or a strong emphasis on “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting decisions” may trigger some profit-taking. In such a scenario, we would still expect any pullbacks to remain limited, with the index maintaining its position within the medium-term upward trend channel. On a long-term valuation basis, the BIST 100 index is once again approaching target levels near 14,000. Provided that non-economic risks do not resurface, we believe Borsa Istanbul could return to its primary upward trend. In terms of short-term technical levels, the 10,800–11,000 range is seen as the initial resistance zone, while the 10,300–10,400 range is considered the first support area. On today’s agenda, alongside the MPC decision, the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will be closely monitored, although no change is expected. On the data front, PMI figures from both Europe and the U.S. will be in focus. Turkey's 5-year CDS spread starts the day at 282 basis points.