Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global markets are starting the week on a flat note. Although the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting highlighted calls for global reform, no concrete action plan emerged. The IMF’s message of a "mixed outlook" for the global economy is not having a significant market impact. The most notable development as the week begins is the Japanese government's loss in the upper house elections, which may weigh on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, although it appears to have little impact across the broader Asian markets. Borsa Istanbul experienced a volatile performance last week within the 10,000 – 10,400 range, ultimately closing near the upper band. This week, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and expected interest rate cut, along with the credit rating decisions from both Moody’s and Fitch scheduled after markets close on Friday, may continue to support Borsa Istanbul. While no rating change is expected from either agency, Citi’s recent note highlighting expectations of a potential upgrade from Moody’s drew attention. The base case is a 250 basis point rate cut from the MPC; however, a 300–350 basis point cut cannot be entirely ruled out. In the short term, the BIST 100 index is expected to face resistance around the 10,450 – 10,500 zone, while key support levels are seen at 10,180 and in the 9,800 – 10,000 range. On today’s agenda, the CBRT Market Participants Survey will be in focus. The 12-month inflation expectation may have eased toward 24%. Later in the week, in addition to rate decisions from the CBRT and the ECB, markets will monitor PMI data from Europe and the United States. Turkey’s 5-year CDS starts the day at 286 basis points.