Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The week begins with rising tensions between the U.S. and the EU over customs tariffs. The U.S. announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico, effective from August 1st, and the EU's signals of potential retaliation are creating stress in global markets. Additionally, ongoing calls from the U.S. administration for Fed Chair Powell’s resignation and threats of his removal are adding another layer of pressure on market sentiment. Domestically, the final trading day of last week saw a modest gain of 0.26% in the BIST 100 Index alongside net outflows on an institutional basis. However, it is worth noting that the week as a whole recorded net inflows. The Turkish equity market may start the new week with a slight pullback due to the weak external backdrop, but overall, we expect upward momentum to be preserved. From a technical perspective, the initial support level to watch on the BIST 100 Index is 10,250, followed by the broader 9,800 / 10,000 support band. On the upside, resistance levels stand at 10,450 / 10,500 and then 10,800. While a weak start to the week is anticipated, we believe that in a scenario where political risks do not weigh heavily on the index, expectations for a potential return to rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) will keep the index on track to target the 11,500 / 12,000 range in the near term. Today’s agenda is relatively quiet, with only domestic Treasury auctions on the radar. Later in the week, Turkish markets will be closed tomorrow, July 15, due to the national holiday, while U.S. inflation data will be in focus. Turkey’s 5-year CDS starts the day at 284 basis points.