Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Despite the gains observed yesterday in the U.S. and European markets, global risk appetite is losing momentum this morning. The announcement by the U.S. to impose a 35% tariff on Canada, coupled with President Trump’s remarks suggesting that general tariffs of 15%–20% could be applied to countries that did not receive formal notification, have reignited trade-related concerns. Turning to Borsa Istanbul, factors such as the increase in withholding tax on deposits, the start of tshe PKK’s disarmament timetable today, the easing of cabinet reshuffle expectations, and anticipated progress on U.S.-related matters including potential CAATSA sanction relief and rejoining the F-35 program, have pushed the BIST 100 Index toward the 10,300 / 10,400 resistance zone, as we highlighted yesterday. The 10,400 level remains a key resistance; if breached, subsequent resistance levels are seen at 10,560 and 10,800. In a scenario where political risks do not weigh on the index, we believe the expectation of a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Central Bank could lead the index toward the 11,500 / 12,000 range in the near term. The 9,800 / 10,000 band represents a critical support zone in this process. In our 2025 H2 Outlook Report, we revised our 12-month target for the BIST 100 Index to 13,600, implying a 32% upside potential from yesterday’s close. This return outlook stands above the expected inflation and possible net deposit yields over the next year. On today’s agenda, the current account balance will be the key data point domestically, while international markets are expected to remain relatively quiet. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 281 basis.