Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite remains balanced, while inconsistent statements from the U.S. are contributing to a lack of clear direction in the markets. Although markets were encouraged by suggestions that the deadline for tariffs—extended from July 9 to August 1—could be further relaxed, President Trump’s assertion that “there will be no extension” dampened sentiment. Nonetheless, we believe these developments remain part of a broader negotiation process, and further exemptions or deadline extensions may still be on the table as of August. Looking at the markets, U.S. futures are flat, while European futures and Asian equities are generally in positive territory. In Borsa Istanbul, political developments at home are once again exerting downward pressure. The BIST 100 index is retreating toward the 9,800 / 10,000 support range, and we may observe intraday testing of this zone. In the medium term, as long as expectations for a rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) persist, resistance levels at $270 and $297 (equivalent to TRY 10,800 and then the 11,500 / 12,000 range) are likely to remain near-term targets. However, political uncertainty and heightened tension may delay or even invalidate these price targets. According to a decision published in the Official Gazette, withholding tax rates for short-term TRY deposits and mutual funds have been increased. For TRY deposits, the withholding tax has been raised from 15% to 17.5% for maturities up to six months, and from 12% to 15% for maturities up to one year. We do not expect this development to have a direct impact on the markets. Today’s agenda is relatively light, with the release of the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for 9:00 PM local time (TSI). Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 288 basis points.