Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global markets are off to a strong start this week. One of U.S. President Trump’s key economic promises—a $4.5 trillion tax bill—has been approved by the Senate. Additionally, expectations of progress in country-level trade negotiations remain intact. U.S. and European futures are starting the week on a positive note, while Asian markets are more mixed but generally inclined toward gains. In Borsa Istanbul, Friday’s news that Germany may lift obstacles to the sale of Eurofighter jets provided some support. Furthermore, statements from the U.S. Ambassador to Ankara suggesting that Turkey might rejoin the F-35 program and that a resolution to the CAATSA sanctions issue could be reached by year-end were supportive for Turkish lira assets. However, domestic markets will likely focus on the court hearing scheduled for today concerning the lawsuit related to CHP’s November 2023 congress. Outcomes such as the appointment of a trustee or a ruling of absolute nullity could trigger selling pressure on BIST, while a dismissal of the case or its postponement to after the summer would likely lead to a positive market reaction. Additionally, today marks the last trading day for June-dated contracts on the VIOP, and potential unwinding of arbitrage positions could exert mild pressure on BIST. In the BIST 100 index, 9300 is seen as an interim support, while the 9500–9550 range acts as a resistance zone. The key support and resistance levels stand at 9000–9100 and 9800–10,000, respectively. On today’s agenda, attention will also be on the Turkish Presidential Cabinet meeting, domestic employment data, foreign trade figures, and growth-related data from the U.S. Later in the week, inflation data from Turkey and Europe, along with U.S. employment figures, will come into focus. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 305 basis points.