Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The flurry of developments surrounding the Iran–Israel tension continues at full speed. First, late last night, Iran struck the Al Udeid Air Base—located approximately 40 km south of Doha—which is the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. According to U.S. sources, there were no casualties due to the pre-announced strike, and President Trump expressed his gratitude to Iran for this. Subsequently, ballistic missile attacks targeted Israeli cities, resulting in fatalities. Amidst these events, U.S. President Trump announced a “complete ceasefire” between Iran and Israel during the night, which Iran confirmed in the early morning hours. As a result, global markets are pricing in the ceasefire this morning. U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian equity markets, are in positive territory. We expect Borsa Istanbul to align with this trend and anticipate an upward move toward the 9,250 resistance level on the BIST 100 Index. The 9,430 level remains the key resistance point reflecting Middle East-related risks over the past 12 days. Meanwhile, the 9,000–9,100 band we have been monitoring for the past three months continues to serve as the main support zone. On today’s agenda, domestic data will include the real sector confidence index and capacity utilization figures. In the U.S., consumer confidence indices and housing price data will be released. President Erdoğan is scheduled to travel to The Hague, Netherlands, to attend the “NATO Heads of State and Government Summit.” At 5:00 PM local time (TSI), Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a presentation before the U.S. House of Representatives. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 306 basis points.