Daily Bulletin

Good morning. We start the day with two key headlines. The first is the outcome of the Fed meeting concluded last night: as expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged; however, it revised inflation forecasts upward and growth forecasts downward. Additionally, stronger emphasis was placed on rising uncertainties and inflation risks in the upcoming period. The second topic is the ongoing Iran–Israel tension, with claims in U.S. media suggesting that the U.S. may take direct military action against Iran in the coming days. These claims have also been intermittently reflected in statements by U.S. President Trump. These two developments are weighing on global risk appetite, leading to a generally negative tone across U.S. and European futures as well as Asian equity markets this morning. The pressure from these developments is also being felt on Borsa Istanbul, and we believe the weakness may persist in the short term. From a technical perspective, support levels for the BIST 100 index are at 9,060 and 8,950, while resistance levels are observed at 9,250 and 9,430. On today's domestic agenda, attention will be on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting at 14:00 local time. We expect the policy rate to be maintained at 46%, while the upper band of the interest rate corridor may be reduced from 49% to 47.50%. The MPC decision statement may include signals of a potential rate cut at the next meeting scheduled for July 24. Therefore, while we expect appetite for Borsa Istanbul to strengthen once geopolitical risks ease, we reiterate that risks remain elevated in the short term. On the global front, today’s data flow is quiet, and U.S. markets will be closed. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums started the day at 305 basis points.