Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Geopolitical tensions persist in global markets as the Iran–Israel conflict continues, with the U.S. currently involved at a verbal level but expected to become physically engaged in the near future. Ongoing threats, warnings, and missile attacks make it difficult to see strong buying appetite in equity markets, even if valuations appear attractive. The domestic outlook is no different; Borsa Istanbul ended flat yesterday with a balanced flow of funds. As such, there have been no significant technical shifts in support or resistance levels, and we do not anticipate a meaningful upward trend in the BIST unless geopolitical tensions ease. From a technical standpoint, resistance levels for the BIST 100 index are observed at 9,430 and 9,560, while support levels stand at 9,210 and 9,060. The Central Bank of Turkey’s reduction of the weighted average cost of funding to 46% has begun to reflect within the financial system, as banks have started to see a decline in their funding costs. Therefore, once the Iran–Israel conflict subsides, the expected positive impact of easing interest rates on financing costs and growth could support Borsa Istanbul. Today’s agenda is relatively light domestically, while inflation data in Europe and housing-related figures in the U.S. will be followed. At 9:00 PM (local time), the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced. No change in rates is expected, but at 9:30 PM, statements from Fed Chair Powell and updated macroeconomic projections from Fed officials will be closely monitored. Turkey’s 5-year CDS starts the day at 295 basis points.