Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global markets continue to focus on geopolitical developments, with the Iran–Israel tension currently topping the agenda. Yesterday, news suggesting conciliatory signals from Iran had supported equity markets during the day; however, we later observed a renewed wave of selling. Unconfirmed reports regarding the Strait of Hormuz—where nearly one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supply transits—and the persistence of geopolitical strain are keeping markets on edge. Borsa Istanbul recorded a modest gain of 0.4% yesterday, although capital outflows continue. We expect intraday volatility to persist. That said, the Central Bank of Turkey’s Weighted Average Cost of Funding still hovers around 46%, and the potential for a rate cut signal from the Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday may lend support to Borsa Istanbul. For the BIST 100 index, resistance levels are at 9,430 and 9,560, while support is observed at 9,210 and 9,060. From a medium- to long-term perspective, we believe that a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions would further strengthen the positive momentum in Borsa Istanbul. Today’s agenda is notably busy: domestic Treasury auctions, economic sentiment surveys in Europe, and in the U.S., key data including retail sales, import/export price indices, industrial production, and capacity utilization will be closely watched. Turkey’s 5-year CDS started the day at 294 basis points.