Daily Bulletin

Good morning. While tensions between Iran and Israel persist, global markets are starting the week on a balanced note. U.S. equity futures are trading in positive territory, European futures are slightly negative, and Asian markets are displaying a mixed performance. On Friday, Borsa Istanbul initially declined to as low as 9,000, but managed to close slightly above the 9,300 level. We expect a balanced opening this morning, with a potential search for a rebound. The 9,400–9,500 range may serve as the initial resistance zone, while support levels are seen at 9,150 and 9,060. Given the heightened volatility driven by Middle East-related headlines, intraday developments should be closely monitored. Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the FOMC and CBRT meetings will be key events. No interest rate change is expected from the Fed. From the CBRT, we do not anticipate a change in the main policy rate (weekly repo auction rate at 46%), but we expect a 150 basis point cut in the upper band of the interest rate corridor (overnight lending rate currently at 49%). Over the past week, the CBRT’s weighted average funding rate (WAFR) has decreased by 300 basis points from around 49% to 46%. If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subside, banks within the XBANK Banking Index could respond positively to the improved outlook. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads started the day at 304 basis points. We believe this increase is largely driven by global risk factors, with domestic influences remaining limited. Should geopolitical risk perception ease, CDS spreads may retreat below the 300 basis point threshold again.