Daily Bulletin

Good morning. During the period we were closed due to the Eid al-Adha holiday, a generally positive pricing trend prevailed in global markets. In the U.S., despite a slowdown in the private sector, the non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the continuation of negotiations between the U.S. and China supported equity markets — a trend that continues into the new week. On Borsa Istanbul, investor appetite is supported by increasing expectations for a rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) following the release of a lower-than-expected CPI figure for May. We believe the positive momentum and capital inflows carried over from last week will continue. However, macroeconomic risks to growth and ongoing non-economic uncertainties may limit the BIST 100 index’s ability to break through the short-term resistance zone of 9,800–10,000. The 9,560 level, where the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages converge, should be monitored as an interim resistance. Support levels are located at 9,420, 9,250, and the 9,000–9,100 zone. Today's economic calendar is relatively quiet. Later in the week, U.S. inflation data, along with industrial production figures from Turkey and Europe, will come into focus. Aside from macro data, U.S.–China negotiations and the ongoing protest actions in California will also be on the radar of global markets. Turkey's 5-year CDS starts the day at 296 basis points. Sustained levels below 300 bps and further easing in credit risk premiums would be critical for the XBANK banking index.