Daily Bulletin

Good morning. News flow suggesting that the U.S.–China negotiations may progress at the leadership level is supporting buying activity in Asian equity markets this morning. U.S. futures are trading in negative territory, while European futures are slightly positive. In Borsa Istanbul, there was only a marginal pullback yesterday; however, a notable capital inflow was observed among active institutional players. Although efforts to hold above the 9,000 level continue, momentum remains weak and fragility persists. Ahead of the four-and-a-half-day holiday, profit-taking driven by cash creation motives was likely completed yesterday, as today's trades will settle after the holiday. Therefore, we may observe a more buying-biased market today. For the BIST 100 index, key technical support levels stand at 8,870 and 8,560, while resistance levels are observed at 9,100 and 9,250. The inflation data for May, to be released at 10:00 AM alongside the market open, will also play a pivotal role in shaping BIST’s trajectory. Monthly CPI is expected to come in around 2%, with annual CPI likely to decline from 37.9% to 36%. An inflation figure in line with expectations would not significantly raise rate cut expectations for the June 19 MPC meeting, but could substantially support expectations for a rate cut at the July 24 MPC. This, in turn, may have a positive impact on the XBANK Banking Index. On today’s macroeconomic agenda, market participants will also be monitoring Eurozone inflation data as well as U.S. figures including durable goods orders, factory orders, and job openings. Turkey's 5-year CDS spread opens the day at 316 basis points.