Daily Bulletin

Good morning. On the final trading morning of the week, risk appetite remains subdued. Following the U.S. Court of Appeals’ temporary suspension of a ruling that had blocked former President Trump’s tariff decisions, U.S. equity futures are trading slightly negative this morning. Meanwhile, losses in Asian markets have exceeded 1%. Turning to the domestic market, Borsa Istanbul has been pricing in the opposite of the global positive sentiment observed since the beginning of the week. Daily trading volumes, significantly below average at around TRY 60–70 billion, have triggered a loss of momentum in the technical outlook. At this point, the index has tested its lowest levels since falling below 9,200 points at the beginning of May. We believe that end-of-month positioning and relatively low risk appetite ahead of the upcoming holiday have contributed to the pressure seen this week. However, despite the pullback, we have not observed a meaningful outflow of capital from the broader BIST All Index. Technically, with the breakdown of the 9,300 support level, the index has approached the key support zone between 9,000 and 9,100 points, which we continue to monitor closely as the week draws to a close. In the event of additional negative news flow, there is a risk that the pressure could deepen toward the lower bound of this zone—below 9,000 points. Given the current low trading volumes and the approaching holiday, we do not anticipate a sharp upward movement in the short term. In the event of intraday rebounds, the 9,300–9,370 range will be our initial resistance level to watch. On another note, the inflation data for May, to be announced on Tuesday next week, will be of significant importance. A reading below expectations could support a more positive pricing in Borsa Istanbul. The 12-month average target level for the BIST 100 index stands at 13,750 points, suggesting a 49% upside potential based on yesterday’s closing price, according to company valuations. While near-term catalysts remain limited, we believe the long-term potential remains intact. At 10:00 AM today, Turkey’s Q1 GDP growth data will be released. Internationally, Germany’s May inflation data will be announced, followed by U.S. personal spending and PCE inflation figures at 3:30 PM (local time). Turkey’s 5-year CDS spread continues its upward trend in recent days and starts the day at 318 basis points.