Daily Bulletin

Good morning. While U.S. President Trump’s tax cut proposal and trade policies with other countries continue to increase uncertainty regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy, the decision to impose a 50% tariff on goods imported from the European Union and the tariff threats directed at Apple have brought global trade concerns back into focus. However, Trump announced that the implementation of this decision would be postponed from June 1 to July 9, 2025. These developments triggered selling pressure in global equity markets at the end of the week, while demand for safe-haven assets supported gains in gold prices, and supply concerns drove Brent crude oil prices higher. Turning to today, Trump’s partial policy reversal is being priced in positively for global risk appetite. Although U.S. indices declined following his remarks, U.K. markets are closed today due to Spring Bank Holiday and U.S. markets are shut for Anna Day. On Borsa Istanbul, buying interest driven by expectations of a new Credit Guarantee Fund turned into selling pressure on Friday, with the BIST 100 Index closing the week at 9,356 points. The index remains sensitive to additional negative developments, both domestic and international, and is showing signs of weakening technical momentum due to net capital outflows. As long as the 9,700–9,800 resistance zone is not sustainably breached, it remains difficult to talk about a relief effect. However, in the wake of external declines, intraday rebound buying could be considered a natural reaction. For upward intraday moves, the 9,500–9,600 resistance levels remain critical, while the key support zone lies in the 9,000–9,100 range in the event of additional negative flows. Today’s agenda is relatively quiet. For the rest of the week, markets will be focused on Q1 GDP, unemployment rate, and economic confidence index data domestically, while in the U.S., GDP growth and the PCE price index will be the key releases to watch. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 305 basis points.