Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Progress on tax cuts in the U.S. and the resulting concerns over budget sustainability have led to weak demand in the latest Treasury auction, triggering a sell-off on Wall Street. Although budget concerns remain dominant for now, a potential corporate tax cut in the coming period could support U.S. equities. U.S. equity index futures are trading flat this morning, while European futures and Asian markets are under selling pressure. On BIST, the 9750 / 9800 resistance zone was tested for four consecutive sessions last week but could not be breached. Amid ongoing capital outflows, the index has slipped slightly below the 9400 level. We are observing a weakening in short-term momentum and trend indicators as well. Given the weak performance in global markets, we expect continued downward pressure on BIST. The 9200 / 9250 range can be monitored as the initial support zone, while 9500 remains a critical resistance level. Following weak Q1 2025 earnings results, downward revisions have materialized for BIST-100 index targets, with the average 12-month forward target falling to around 13,800. Compared to yesterday’s close, this implies an upside potential of approximately 47% at the index level. However, the market is struggling to identify catalysts that could drive the index toward this potential target. This reinforces the notion that “a market unable to rise is prone to fall,” bringing the 9000 / 9100 band back into focus. On today’s agenda, domestic data releases include real sector confidence, capacity utilization, and CBRT reserves. In the U.S. and Europe, PMI figures will be in the spotlight. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spread starts the day at 295 basis points.