Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global equity markets are starting the new day with a slightly negative tone. Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are expected to commence in Istanbul at 10:00 AM today. However, the absence of high-level representation from the Russian side may hinder any substantial progress. From Turkey's perspective, the notable development this morning is the U.S. Department of Defense’s approval of the sale of advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (Sidewinder Block II), along with related logistical and program support elements and tactical guidance units to Turkey. Following this news, BIST 30 index futures rose by approximately 0.5% during the evening session on VIOP. There is a 15-day objection period for this sale, and if no objections are raised within this window, the approval will be finalized. Additionally, we observe a slight decline in the Central Bank of Turkey’s weighted average cost of funding, which had been around 48.8% for some time, now edging down to approximately 48.6%. If this downward trend continues, it could be supportive for Borsa Istanbul. As Q1 2025 earnings season concludes, the 12-month average target for the BIST 100 index has been revised downward from around 14,400 to approximately 13,850, while the index-based return potential has decreased from 55% to 43% during the same period. Today’s macroeconomic agenda is particularly busy. Domestically, budget balance data, reserves, and weekly foreign transactions will be monitored, while in Europe, growth and employment indices will be in focus. In the U.S., PPI, housing, and growth-related data will be closely followed. Turkey's 5-year CDS premiums are starting the day at 302 basis points.