Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Although progress in tariff negotiations between the United States and China, along with a 90-day extension, has supported global equity markets, U.S. President Trump’s remarks that the deal does not cover the automotive, steel, aluminum, and chemical sectors, and his warning that tariffs could be reinstated if China fails to meet its commitments, are capping global risk appetite. Following strong gains in U.S. and European markets yesterday, futures on major indices are slightly in negative territory this morning, while Asian markets display a mixed outlook. On Borsa Istanbul, the nearly 4% rally observed yesterday, along with six consecutive days of rising trading volume, is technically positive. However, this uptrend is not supported by substantial capital inflows. In BIST, after closing above the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, whether the index can sustain itself above the 9500–9600 range will be critical for the continuation of the upward momentum. Resistance levels are seen at 9850 and 10000. On the domestic front, the Central Bank of Turkey’s weighted average cost of funding remains elevated at around 49%, and the weak earnings performance particularly among non-financial companies may hinder the index from fully recovering its prior losses. We are also observing continued downward revisions in year-end and 12-month index targets. On today’s agenda, the current account balance will be monitored locally, while the U.S. CPI data will be the key focus globally. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 315 basis points.