Daily Bulletin

Good morning, Progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations and the ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and India are providing support to global equity markets this morning. In particular, expectations are rising that a potential U.S.–China deal could bring the prolonged trade war tensions—an issue that has weighed on global markets since the beginning of the year—closer to a resolution. However, it is important to note that we do not anticipate a full return to pre-conflict conditions. Even if a consensus is reached, tariff rates are expected to remain elevated compared to the previous year. While short-term optimism may lift markets, risks related to inflation and a partial slowdown in economic activity continue to persist. As of this morning, U.S. equity futures are trading 1–2% higher, European markets are posting gains close to 1%, and Asian markets are also broadly positive. In Borsa Istanbul, technical indicators continue to improve. This momentum—fueled by capital inflows and strong trading volumes—is expected to carry into the new week, potentially driving the BIST 100 Index toward the 9,500 / 9,600 range. Nonetheless, uncertainties stemming from weak corporate earnings, elevated interest rates, and non-economic developments remain a headwind for domestic markets. Accordingly, while Borsa Istanbul may somewhat align with the global rebound, we do not anticipate a full recovery of the losses incurred since March 19 in the short term. Today's data calendar is relatively light, with no major releases apart from the U.S. budget balance. Later in the week, attention will turn to Turkey’s current account balance, budget balance, and the CBRT Market Participants Survey. Internationally, U.S. inflation data and European growth figures will be key indicators to monitor. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 332 basis points.