Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Despite the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India, global risk appetite is positive this morning. Speculation that the United States may reach a trade agreement with the United Kingdom is fueling buying interest in U.S. and European futures, while purchases continue across Asian markets as well. In contrast, Borsa Istanbul remains under pressure due to the persistence of a high interest rate environment, weak corporate earnings, and ongoing non-economic risks. The BIST 100 index is once again testing the 9000 / 9100 support zone, while downward revisions continue in company target prices and, consequently, index targets. Although the revised targets point to lower potential returns compared to previous weeks, we believe that the expected index-level return—falling from around 55% to approximately 45%—remains attractive relative to expected inflation. However, for this attractive return to effectively support risk appetite, there is a high need for positive domestic catalysts, and we are not yet in a particularly optimistic period in this regard. Therefore, while we may occasionally see rebound buying on Borsa Istanbul, we expect the overall weakness to persist. Recently, warnings from international investment banks and credit rating agencies have drawn attention to the significant risk of economic slowdown should Turkey’s high funding costs persist over an extended period. In the short term, the 9000 and 8870 levels can be monitored as supports, while the 9200 and 9250/9280 levels are key resistances. On today’s agenda, foreign securities transactions and the budget balance will be followed domestically, while employment and consumption-focused data will be watched in the U.S. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 340 basis points.