Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The unprecedented nine-day uninterrupted rally in the U.S. stock markets over the past 20 years came to an end yesterday, as indices returned to the levels seen on April 2 when customs tariffs were announced globally. Contributing factors to the sell-off included Warren Buffett’s announcement that he will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, former President Trump’s plan to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films, and the postponement of initial rate cut expectations to September ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision tomorrow. This morning, continued selling in U.S. futures contracts signals that markets are entering a period of bilateral negotiations, which we anticipate will also influence the sentiment across global equity markets. In Borsa Istanbul, weak momentum and capital outflows persist. Against the backdrop of a sustained high interest rate environment, weak earnings performance, and ongoing political risks, we expect continued pressure on the BIST. In this context, the 9000 / 9100 support zone and the 9250 / 9280 resistance zone should be closely monitored. Approximately 35% of Borsa Istanbul-listed companies have reported Q1 2025 results, with only 15% meeting the six key criteria we prioritize (revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, net profit, and return on equity growth). As a result of these outcomes, we foresee continued downward revisions to the 12-month average index target, which will likely cap the BIST until a new equilibrium is established. On today’s agenda, European PMI figures and PPI data will take the spotlight. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 349 basis points.