Daily Bulletin

Good morning. On Saturday, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) introduced several adjustments to the macroprudential framework with the objective of “supporting the transition to the Turkish lira.” We expect these changes to have supportive effects on foreign exchange reserves, incentivize TL deposits, and exert modest upward pressure on domestic deposit rates. The potential impact on Borsa Istanbul, however, is likely to remain limited. Following the strong performance in global equity markets on Friday, we observe a weak start to the new week. While tensions between the US and China are occasionally balanced by conciliatory messages, the standoff over tariffs persists. Additionally, we note a renewed increase in geopolitical risk sentiment centered on the Middle East. For the BIST 100 index, we can share a very narrow initial support/resistance range today, with 9100 as support and 9200 as resistance. Below 9100, the 9000 and 8870 levels should be monitored as further supports, while above 9200, the 9250/9280 band will act as the next resistance zone. On Friday, we observed foreign inflows; however, as we have previously highlighted, in the current high-interest-rate environment, alongside weak corporate earnings and ongoing uncertainties regarding non-economic issues, we do not believe that pullbacks in the BIST are being perceived as “buying opportunities” by the market. Notably, downward revisions in long-term BIST 100 index targets are becoming more pronounced. On today’s agenda, domestic inflation data will be in focus. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 349 basis points.