Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Externally, technology earnings and unconfirmed reports of ongoing U.S.–China negotiations are providing support to global equity markets. Domestically, however, weak corporate earnings, high funding costs, and political pressures continue to weigh on sentiment. The BIST 100 index, which dipped below the 9,250 support level, declined by 1.6% on Wednesday to 9,078, although there was a net inflow of funds across the index. Nevertheless, since the inflows were largely driven by public-sector purchases, we do not interpret the recent pullback in BIST as presenting a “buying opportunity” from a risk appetite perspective. We remain within the 9,000–9,100 support zone, a level we have highlighted for some time, where the index may seek stabilization. Below this, the 8,870 support level should be monitored. On the upside, resistance levels are located at 9,160 and the 9,250/9,280 zone. In the longer term, downward revisions to BIST 100 index targets have become more pronounced. Following the Q1 2025 earnings releases from approximately one-third of Borsa Istanbul-listed companies, the 12-month average index target has been revised down from 14,400 to 14,100. We anticipate that this downward trend may continue; however, we still expect the index’s return potential to remain above the projected inflation rate. Today’s agenda will be driven by U.S. employment data. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads are starting the day at 361 basis points.