Daily Bulletin

Good morning. We are in a period where tariff concerns in the U.S. have resurfaced, leading to sell-offs in global stock markets. On the other hand, in Borsa Istanbul, the impact of the domestic agenda and weak momentum persist. As expected, CBRT reserve data indicated a decline of $8 billion in gross reserves and $12 billion in net reserves. We estimate that the decline in reserves has continued this week as well. Looking at CBRT data, we observed a foreign outflow of $440 million last week, offsetting the inflow recorded in the previous week. We anticipate that foreign outflows have continued this week as well. During this period of high volatility and weakness in BIST, it is crucial to maintain low short-term risks while focusing on companies with mid-to-long-term potential and strong valuations. Today's agenda includes confidence indices in both domestic and European markets, while in the U.S., core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE) will be closely monitored. As the Fed's key inflation indicator, which it tracks with a 2% target, Core PCE is expected to rise from 2.6% to 2.7% annually. This could lead to further postponement of rate cut expectations from the Fed. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 319 basis points. The increase in CDS is also influenced by warnings from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regarding the country's debt repayment capacity and rising debt burden. CDS levels for all countries are on the rise during this period.