Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Following U.S. President Trump’s announcement that a 25% tariff will be imposed on automobiles not manufactured in the U.S., a selling trend is dominating global markets. However, U.S. futures are seeking a rebound this morning, while European futures remain negative, and Asia presents a mixed outlook. At Borsa Istanbul, we observed a decline below 9,700 yesterday, along with approximately 500 million TL in outflows from active institutions. Momentum remains weak, and the market continues to react to politically driven developments, which is expected to keep volatility high. On today’s agenda, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) will release its reserve data and foreign investors’ equity and government bond transactions at 14:30. During last week’s currency fluctuations, an estimated $25 billion in reserves was utilized. Today’s data will reveal the official figures. A higher-than-expected reserve loss could negatively impact TL assets, while a lower-than-expected usage may have a positive effect. Externally, key U.S. data releases include Q4 2024 GDP growth figures, weekly jobless claims, and pending home sales. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 308 basis points. CDS levels have risen compared to yesterday, but this increase is largely attributed to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) warning that the country may run out of debt payment capacity by August or September, effectively signaling a potential default risk. This development has negatively affected CDS levels across all countries.