Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite is weak this morning. Domestically, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) raised the upper band of the interest rate corridor from 44% to 46% half an hour before BIST’s closing yesterday. Following this, it announced a suspension of one-week repo auctions, which had been the key policy rate at 42.5%. This effectively signals an interest rate hike. One of the most significant catalysts for Turkish assets and Borsa Istanbul since last November has been the argument that "in an environment where disinflation persists, CBRT’s rate cuts will support growth." However, this argument has now been put on hold for the time being. The duration of this period remains uncertain at this stage. As a result, pressure and high volatility in BIST are expected to persist. It would not be rational to expect a rate cut from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its April 17 meeting. The outlook on this matter will also be shaped by non-economic developments. From a technical perspective, the 9400–9600 range serves as a critical support zone for the BIST 100 index, while the 10200–10300 range is a key resistance area. The 12-month target for the BIST 100 index still points above 14,000. However, if the delay in the rate-cut cycle weakens growth and consumption, downward revisions in these targets may follow. Today's economic calendar is relatively quiet. Meanwhile, Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 294 basis points, marking their highest levels in recent times.