Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The recent announcement of some flexibility in U.S. customs tariffs, investment announcements in Europe—particularly in defense—and stimulus expectations in China are driving buying activity in global markets. In Borsa Istanbul, strong momentum continues with high trading volume, foreign purchases, and capital inflows. The BIST 100 index closed at 10,189 yesterday, marking the second-highest closing level since August 5. Given the ongoing momentum and the positive outlook in global markets, we expect the 10,200–10,300 resistance zone to be tested today. A breakout above this zone could target the 10,450–10,500 range, effectively closing the gap formed seven months ago. However, it should be noted that this scenario does not apply to the BIST 100 index in dollar or inflation-adjusted terms, nor to the XUSIN BIST Industrial Index, as these indices remain well below their resistance levels from the past seven months. The rally, led by banks, may take some more time to spread across the broader market. While fourth-quarter financial results for non-banking sectors are stronger compared to the second and third quarters, they still reflect weakness. Therefore, despite 12-month BIST 100 index targets pointing above 14,000, the possibility of a short-lived rally remains. On today's agenda, the CBRT and ECB interest rate decisions stand out. We expect a 250-basis-point rate cut from the CBRT, with the wording of the decision statement being crucial. Meanwhile, Turkey's 5-year CDS starts the day at 255 basis points.