Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The U.S. 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect today, while tariffs on China have been raised from 10% to 20%. Reciprocal tariffs will begin on April 2, leading to even higher effective rates. U.S. stock markets saw declines of 1.5% to 2.6% yesterday, though futures are slightly positive this morning. In contrast, European markets gained yesterday, but futures are negative today. Meanwhile, all major Asian markets are trading lower. On the BIST, banks led a 2.6% rally yesterday, accompanied by one of the highest trading volumes of the past year. Foreign inflows and capital movements were notable. From a technical perspective, all key exponential moving averages (5, 10, 22, 50, 100, and 200-day) have been surpassed, while momentum and relative strength indicators have improved. Additionally, medium-term trend indicators, such as MACD, have started generating buy signals. Overall, we observe a significant improvement in the technical outlook for BIST. From a fundamental standpoint, the 12-month average target for the BIST 100 index stands at approximately 14,200, implying a 43% upside potential at the index level. This figure surpasses potential currency and deposit returns, as well as both reported and expected inflation rates. Following inflation data that came in below expectations, expectations for rate cuts from the Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) have strengthened again, further supporting BIST. We believe this support will continue. Today’s economic calendar is relatively quiet. Turkey’s 5-year CDS starts the day at 252 basis points.