Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global stock markets are starting the new week on a positive note. Following the data released in the U.S. on Friday, rebound buying emerged, while in Asia, new stimulus messages from China this morning have also fueled buying activity. Borsa Istanbul saw a nearly 1% decline on Friday; however, as we mentioned on Friday morning, the closing of arbitrage positions also played a role in this sell-off. Despite the overall capital outflow from the index, we observe that foreign investors were more active on the buying side on Friday. The BIST 100 index continues to hold above its 200-day exponential moving average, which hovers around the 9,600 level. Today, we expect a rebound in BIST. The 9,600 / 9,620 range serves as the initial support zone, while the 9,750 / 9,780 range can be monitored as the first resistance area. On today’s agenda, Turkey's February inflation data stands out. With a monthly increase of around 3%, annual CPI is expected to decline from 42% to around 40%. Externally, manufacturing PMI data from Europe and the U.S., along with inflation and growth-related indicators, will be closely watched. Later in the week, key events include the CBRT and ECB interest rate decisions, as well as U.S. employment data. The CBRT is expected to cut the policy rate by 250 basis points on Thursday, bringing it down to 42.5%. Meanwhile, Turkey's 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) start the day at 254 basis points.