Daily Bulletin

Good morning. After weak closings in the U.S. and European markets yesterday, futures are distinctly in positive territory this morning. We believe there are three main reasons for this: First, following the weak consumer confidence data released in the U.S. yesterday, expectations for a Fed rate cut have been moved forward by two months. However, we do not expect this shift to be permanent. Second, the approval of the budget plan in the U.S. House of Representatives, which paves the way for tax cuts. A reduction in corporate tax has been one of Donald Trump’s most prominent promises ahead of the presidential elections. If this bill becomes law and corporate taxes are lowered, it will significantly support U.S. markets. The third factor is the agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. on the sharing of resources such as rare minerals, oil, and gas. Meanwhile, the weak trend continues in Borsa Istanbul. We do not believe this selling phase has fundamental economic reasons, nor do we expect it to be long-lasting. However, from a technical perspective, there is still some room for further softening below the 200-day exponential moving average. There may be attempts at a rebound today, but unless the BIST 100 index moves back above 9,600, the technical outlook will remain weak. Today's agenda is relatively quiet, with the U.S. market awaiting NVIDIA's earnings report in the evening. Additionally, U.S. GDP data will be released tomorrow, while on Friday, Turkey’s GDP figures and the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures data will be in focus. Turkey’s 5-year CDS starts the day at 255 basis points.