Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Following the higher-than-expected CPI data in the U.S. yesterday, expectations for a Fed rate cut have been pushed back to the last quarter of 2025. As we have frequently mentioned before, as growth, employment, and inflation-focused data continue to emerge in the U.S., expectations for a “rate cut” from the Fed will increasingly be shelved. In fact, by mid-year, discussions about a potential “rate hike” by the Fed may become more prominent. Global markets are in good spirits this morning. U.S. and European futures, along with Asian markets, are trading in positive territory. Despite the BIST index declining by 1% yesterday, dropping below 9,800, institutional inflows remain active. Notably, in the last hour of the session, a significant amount of capital entered the market, with positions being taken from the day’s lowest levels. We anticipate a positive opening for BIST this morning. Profit-taking may occur in short-term positions around the 9,850 – 9,900 resistance zone. On today’s agenda, domestic data releases include the current account balance and the CBRT’s weekly foreign transactions report. According to monthly data published by Borsa Istanbul, foreign investors remained net buyers in January, following net purchases in both November and December. In January, foreigners made a net purchase of $253 million in equities, with THYAO, TCELL, and ASTOR being the most acquired stocks, while AEFES, MAVI, and EREGL saw net selling. Externally, U.S. PPI data will be closely monitored. Meanwhile, Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 253 basis points.