Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The decree regarding the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports was signed by President Trump. Since a 25% tariff has already been applied to similar products imported from Turkey since 2018, the direct impact of this decision on us is limited. Yesterday, Borsa İstanbul saw a nearly 1% decline and capital outflow. Due to weakening momentum, the negative outlook abroad, and domestic news flow, we expect a pullback below 9,800 this morning. Support levels can be monitored at 9,750 and 9,620, while resistance levels stand at 9,890 and 9,980. We are in a period where domestic and international political news has a significant impact on the market. During such times, predictability decreases significantly, making short-term and trade-oriented positions riskier. In the medium-to-long-term outlook, the 12-month average target for the BIST 100 index is around 14,200, indicating a potential return of 44% at the index level. This potential return surpasses estimated inflation, possible exchange rate fluctuations, and deposit yields. Therefore, we expect demand for Turkish companies to continue, declines to remain limited, and upward movements to become more pronounced once the news flow stabilizes. Today's agenda is relatively quiet. Later in the week, inflation data from the U.S. and growth data from Europe will be closely monitored. Turkey's 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 254 basis points.