Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global markets are showing a mixed trend ahead of the U.S. employment data. U.S. futures are slightly negative, while European indices, after gaining more than 1% yesterday and even testing all-time highs, are experiencing mild losses this morning. In Borsa Istanbul, a 1.3% rebound was observed yesterday, accompanied by continued capital inflows. We expect this positive outlook to persist today. However, starting from 10:30 AM, the Central Bank of Turkey’s first Inflation Report presentation of the year will be closely monitored. We do not anticipate any revisions to the year-end 2025 CPI forecast of 21% or the expectation range of 16% - 26%. However, it is worth noting that these projections remain optimistic compared to the broader market outlook. If we observe upward revisions in inflation expectations, this could create a perception that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) might slow down its rate-cutting steps, potentially putting some pressure on Borsa Istanbul. Apart from this, today’s agenda includes the U.S. employment data, which will be announced at 4:30 PM Turkish time. Key figures such as non-farm payroll growth, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings will be released. Meanwhile, Turkey’s 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) started the day at 254 basis points.