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Daily Bulletin

Tacirler Investment

Good morning. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has reduced the policy rate, tracked as the one-week repo auction rate, from 50% to 47.5%. Thus, the policy rate has decreased by 250 basis points, while its annual compounded equivalent has declined by 400 basis points from 65% to 61%. Since these rates are still above both the announced and expected inflation figures, it can be stated that tight monetary conditions and a positive real interest rate environment persist in Turkey. Given the ongoing demand, we do not anticipate significant pressure on growth, and the disinflation process is expected to continue. It is also worth noting that the interest rate corridor has been revised from the 47-53% range to the 46-49% range. Consequently, while the policy rate was reduced by 250 basis points, the lower band of the interest rate corridor (overnight borrowing rate) was only cut by 100 basis points. From the perspective of Borsa Istanbul (BIST), we view this decision positively. However, following recent developments over the past two days (a 30% minimum wage increase and the announcement of 8 meetings scheduled for 2025), such a decision was anticipated. This morning, global markets exhibit a moderate optimism, but the year-end effects remain evident. Domestically, we may observe a flat market today. On the BIST 100 index, the technical levels to watch are 9890 and 9830 as supports and 9970 and 10050 as resistances. Today's agenda is calm. Turkey's 5-year credit default swap (CDS) premiums start the day at 258 basis points.

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