Daily Bulletin

Good morning. As expected, the Fed reduced the policy rate range by “25 basis points,” lowering it from 4.50% – 4.75% to 4.25% – 4.50%. Additionally, the Fed delivered hawkish messages with a focus on inflation, again as anticipated, revising inflation expectations upward for the upcoming period and sharing a path that includes fewer rate cuts. Consequently, market pricing now reflects an expectation of only one rate cut (25 basis points) for next year, which has led to a sell-off in the stock markets. U.S. stock markets experienced declines of 2.5% – 3.5% yesterday, while European futures and Asian markets are also trading in negative territory this morning. In Borsa Istanbul, news reports toward the end of yesterday’s session about some U.S. senators potentially calling for sanctions on Turkey due to its military activities in Syria caused selling pressure. However, after the market closed, reports emerged suggesting that all sanctions imposed on Turkey during the Trump era, especially those under CAATSA, could be lifted. Although this development is supportive, the Fed's impact remains dominant in global markets. Given the ongoing loss of momentum and the deterioration in the short-term technical outlook, we believe the weak trend in BIST could continue. During the day, the 9850 and 9700/9750 levels can be monitored as support, while 9940 and 10000 levels serve as resistance. On today’s agenda, U.S. growth data takes center stage. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 251 basis points.