Daily Buletin

Good morning. While the agreement between the U.S. and Iran on a two-week ceasefire is supporting global risk appetite, Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon and Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic are weighing on sentiment. Brent crude oil prices, which had eased to as low as USD 88 yesterday, are moving back toward USD 95 this morning. U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian equities, are also generally trading in negative territory. While yesterday’s gains have not been fully erased, the positive tone seen yesterday has not been sustained. In yesterday’s market commentary, we noted that “it is important to remain cautious regarding the durability of the ceasefire and the prospects for achieving a lasting peace during this period. Therefore, we believe risk exposure should be increased in a measured and controlled manner. In the BIST 100 Index, a gap had formed in the 13,450–13,550 range following the sell-off triggered by the initial attacks on February 28. This gap area, which is approximately 4% above current levels, may be tested today. However, we believe that a move beyond this region would require stronger conviction that the ceasefire will hold and that a lasting peace can be achieved.” Indeed, the BIST 100 Index closed yesterday at 13,536 points, within the range we highlighted, while recent developments indicate that a cautious stance should be maintained. The index gained 4.8% yesterday, with ASELS, AKBNK, THYAO, BIMAS, and YKBNK providing the strongest positive contributions. On the negative side, TUPRS, PETKM, DAPGM, KTLEV, and PASEU weighed on the index. Stocks that have attracted consistent fund inflows over the past week include ASELS, GARAN, BIMAS, and DOFRB. From a technical perspective, 13,550 and 13,680 may be monitored as resistance levels, while 13,450 and 13,330 stand out as support levels. Today’s agenda includes reserve data domestically, while U.S. growth and inflation figures will be monitored abroad.