Daily Buletin

Good morning. In the U.S., following technology companies’ gains of up to 50% in dollar terms since April and their elevated valuations, investment banks have started issuing warnings about risks and inflated multiples. With Fed rate-cut expectations losing some strength, these warnings have become more reflected in prices, triggering broad-based selling in U.S. equities, led by the technology sector. The perception that negotiations to end the Russia–Ukraine war will take longer has also added to the selling pressure. This morning, U.S. and European futures, along with Asian markets, are broadly negative. In Borsa Istanbul, after holding above the 10,800 support, the index has reached the 10,950–11,000 area over the past three sessions; however, the market is struggling to find momentum to move decisively above the 11,000 threshold. While there are inflows into the market overall, the concentration in a limited number of stocks indicates that the buying trend is not broadly spread across the index. Therefore, the 11,000–11,100 zone and the 11,250 level should be monitored as critical resistance areas, which may remain difficult to surpass in the near term. Although expectations of a rate cut from the CBRT and a relatively more favorable Q2 2025 earnings season compared to prior quarters have carried the BIST 100 index from the 9,000 level toward 11,000, we believe additional catalysts are required to break higher. On the downside, 10,800 and 10,500 remain the key support levels. In the longer term, valuation upgrades continue, with our latest calculations pointing to a 12-month forward BIST 100 target above 14,500. On today’s agenda, European inflation data and the Fed minutes will be in focus. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 268 basis points.